Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4820…517f crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%57W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses57 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage62d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 30? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 24? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? May 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? May 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 19? May 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 18? May 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 17? May 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 16? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 9? May 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 6? May 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 1? May 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? Apr 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 23? Apr 23 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $83 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $82 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $82 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $82 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $82 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $81 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $81 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $81 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $81 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $80 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $80 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $80 25d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $80 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $80 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 28d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $79 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $79 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $79 30d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $79 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.70 · official $82.70 (match) · 115 history records