Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x481c…b3fe crypto 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$614 (-3%) realized −$614 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%222W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$79
14 days−$168
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$824
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 47% -28.2%
≤30d 60 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 62% -12.0%
≤90d 62 -5.6% -14.6% 65% 60% -13.7%
all 333 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 60% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 60% -12.3%
10% -18.1% 41% -20.7%
15% -26.0% 26% -28.3%
20% -33.3% 14% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$39 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$614
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses222 / 111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)333 / 333
History coverage122d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 333 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$21 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $151 +$20 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $256 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$72 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $154 +$117 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $152 +$34 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$35 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$18 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 915 history records