Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x481b…fb3a other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%48W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3
politics 28% −$40
world 9% +$3
crypto 8% +$1
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -3.1% -12.3% 92% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -10.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses48 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage726d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 30 $47 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on March 18? Mar 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? Mar 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $181 $0 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Feb 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 03 $39 +$1 +2%
Raptors vs. Kings Feb 03 $84 $0 +0%
Mistral AI IPO in 2025? Jan 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21? Nov 22 $55 $0 +0%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin Royer Nov 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 28 $215 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 08 $26 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? Apr 13 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? Apr 11 $22 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Diddy? Jan 21 $45 $0 +0%
Is John McAfee alive? Jan 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22? Nov 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22? Nov 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $85 +$3 +3%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Nov 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? Oct 20 $55 $0 +0%
Pavel Durov released in August? Oct 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Sep 23 $55 $0 +0%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Aug 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? Aug 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $55 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke by July 31? Aug 06 $13 $0 +0%
NVIDIA largest company in July? Aug 06 $19 $0 +1%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through July? Aug 06 $22 $0 +2%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Biden drop out on July 19? Jul 20 $78 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 100¢ $58 42d
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $84 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $53 91d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $181 112d
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $36 119d
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? BUY No 100¢ $37 134d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 98¢ $39 147d
Mistral AI IPO in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 178d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21? BUY No 100¢ $55 208d
Will no leader be out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $215 239d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $26 285d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 90¢ $20 320d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? BUY No 100¢ $70 369d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 98¢ $19 406d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $57 431d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? BUY No 100¢ $62 432d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? BUY Down 99¢ $22 436d
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $23 460d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $23 478d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $10 499d
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $18 499d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 512d
Will Biden pardon Diddy? BUY No 100¢ $45 520d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $20 536d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? BUY No 100¢ $26 536d
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $26 546d
Is John McAfee alive? BUY No 99¢ $16 555d
Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? BUY No 100¢ $12 562d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.93 · official $45.93 (match) · 107 history records