Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x481a…078f other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$112 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%54W / 14L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$20
crypto 28% +$66
economics 18% +$39
weather 15% −$59
finance 5% +$35
world 2% $0
politics 2% −$5
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.8% -1.6% 67% 33% -5.8%
≤30d 5 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 20% -6.7%
≤90d 19 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 11% -10.5%
all 68 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 7% -8.7%
10% -19.2% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 1% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses54 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage169d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $183 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 +$12 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 06 $95 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $299 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 29 $268 +$32 +12%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1? Apr 01 $101 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? Apr 01 $163 −$85 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1? Apr 01 $14 −$13 -89%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 24 $356 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 22? Mar 22 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? Mar 22 $239 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 21? Mar 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 21? Mar 22 $299 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 21? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 19 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 Mar 18 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Mar 18 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 17? Mar 17 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16? Mar 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16? Mar 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15 Mar 16 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 14 $152 +$9 +6%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $65 −$3 -4%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 07 $65 −$6 -8%
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 07 $153 +$5 +3%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $652 −$17 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Fe Feb 23 $143 +$1 +0%
Will another team win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Feb 18 $313 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $6 $0 -7%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Feb 16 $99 −$26 -26%
Will Agibot have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 15 $334 +$5 +1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $585 +$37 +6%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $632 +$20 +3%
Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 22 $312 +$1 +0%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 17 $30 $0 +1%
Over $14M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 16 $291 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $289 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $289 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $274 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $80 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $182 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $91 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $92 4d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? SELL No 97¢ $92 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? SELL No 97¢ $6 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 95¢ $95 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 99¢ $57 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 99¢ $242 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 100¢ $296 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 99¢ $3 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 89¢ $268 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? SELL No 11¢ $3 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? SELL No 11¢ $8 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? BUY No 94¢ $9 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? BUY No 94¢ $28 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? BUY No 91¢ $18 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? BUY No 89¢ $9 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? BUY No 87¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? SELL No 90¢ $46 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? SELL No 90¢ $20 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1? SELL No 8¢ $2 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.28 · official $118.28 (match) · 307 history records