trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-2%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 42¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+11%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 40¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 40¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $259 | $0 | −$259 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Jun 12 | $4 | −$1 | -33% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $31 | −$6 | -19% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | May 01 | $353 | +$30 | +9% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | Apr 30 | $386 | −$273 | -71% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Apr 26 | $259 | −$259 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -25.8% | -32.8% | 0% | 0% | -27.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -25.8% | -32.8% | 0% | 0% | -27.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -42.7% | -48.2% | 20% | 0% | -54.1% |
| all | 5 | -42.7% | -48.2% | 20% | 0% | -54.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -48.2% | 0% | -54.1% |
| 10% | -53.2% | 0% | -58.5% |
| 15% | -57.7% | 0% | -62.5% |
| 20% | -61.8% | 0% | -66.2% |