Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4812…d20d crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$75 (+13%) realized +$138 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$192
14 days+$192
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$25
other 45% +$131
finance 9% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +195.0% +166.9% 44% 44% +41.8%
≤30d 9 +195.0% +166.9% 44% 44% +41.8%
≤90d 39 +13.4% +2.6% 38% 38% +13.6%
all 39 +13.4% +2.6% 38% 38% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 38% +13.6%
10% -7.2% 33% +2.8%
15% -16.2% 31% -7.2%
20% -24.4% 26% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage47d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$56 +550%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 07 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 07 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 07 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $50 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $160 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $12 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.57 · official $17.57 (match) · 100 history records