Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4811…466b other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$149 (-6%) realized −$147 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$179
politics 28% +$39
world 27% +$27
crypto 4% +$8
culture 4% −$73
economics 4% +$10
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +24.4% +12.6% 50% 50% +51.5%
≤90d 8 -14.7% -22.8% 25% 25% -29.2%
all 30 -22.3% -29.7% 33% 20% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 20% -15.8%
10% -36.5% 17% -23.9%
15% -42.6% 13% -31.2%
20% -48.2% 10% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage228d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $96 $103 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $32 $23 −$10 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $123 +$97 +79%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 01 $14 −$4 -30%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $144 −$71 -50%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 16 $100 −$73 -73%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $303 −$157 -52%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 16 $273 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 26 $145 +$51 +35%
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? Jan 24 $22 −$4 -19%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 23 $148 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 17 $210 −$65 -31%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 17 $28 −$4 -14%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 17 $22 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during the Signing Ceremony on Wednesda Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 14 $416 +$136 +33%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 11 $78 +$14 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 5-11? Jan 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 5-11? Jan 11 $50 +$4 +9%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 06 $22 −$7 -30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 27 $1 $0 -41%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 27 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 04 $5 $0 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 20d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $221 21d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $123 26d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 26d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $72 41d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $43 41d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $146 42d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $303 42d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $270 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 42d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 42d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $273 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 115d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 26¢ $98 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.70 · official $125.70 (match) · 160 history records