Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4810…d688
world · 118 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$292 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$402 · open −$110
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$440
Realized+$402
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses42 / 72
Open positions4
Markets (closed)114 / 118
History coverage395d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 4 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$28
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 50¢ 34¢ $418 $282 −$136 (-32%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 72¢ $122 $143 +$21 (+17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 16¢ 36¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+124%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 34¢ 13¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$3 -20%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 13 $120 −$26 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $100 −$25 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$22 -44%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $50 +$48 +97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 06 $51 +$59 +115%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Jun 02 $9 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $210 +$161 +77%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 22 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Apr 22 $25 −$3 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $50 −$21 -42%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $50 −$35 -69%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $148 +$236 +159%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Apr 12 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 10 $18 +$2 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Apr 04 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? Apr 04 $12 −$12 -100%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? Apr 04 $128 +$16 +12%
Will Chromakopia (Tyler the Creator) win Best Rap Album at the 68th An Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 27? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Nayt win Sanremo 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ermal Meta win Sanremo 2026? Apr 04 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026? Apr 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify list Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Ann Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Levante win Sanremo 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 -54%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY A Apr 04 $7 −$5 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% +$188
other 24% +$236
politics 6% +$9
culture 5% −$48
economics 2% −$51
sports 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$26
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $42 2h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 2h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 2h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $93 2h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 46¢ $94 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $36 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $36 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $37 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $38 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $38 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $28 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $28 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $122 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $100 7h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $48 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $180 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 78¢ $51 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 44¢ $50 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 71¢ $60 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.1% -3.1% 30% 20% -3.6%
≤30d 11 +8.8% -1.5% 36% 27% -3.2%
≤90d 55 -48.6% -53.5% 20% 16% +3.4%
all 114 +16.3% +5.3% 37% 34% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 34% +8.0%
10% -4.8% 29% -2.3%
15% -14.0% 28% -11.7%
20% -22.4% 25% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.16 · official $443.54 (match) · 512 history records