Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x480e…90c7
sports · 315 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,261 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,303 · open −$340
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$3,303
Unrealized−$340
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses152 / 152
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions7
Markets (closed)304 / 315
History coverage106d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 304 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$73
14 days−$528
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $26 +$26 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Yes 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Spurs 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Warriors 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Tennessee State Tigers 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 60¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers Rockets 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Athletics 45¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Lakers 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 54¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Nets vs. Pistons Pistons 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 56¢ 0¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 +$307 +598%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $132 +$48 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $132 +$107 +81%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $298 +$174 +58%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $111 +$89 +80%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $133 −$130 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $132 +$72 +54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $132 +$106 +81%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$3 -7%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $415 −$410 -99%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $132 −$130 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $294 −$17 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $113 −$111 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $215 +$98 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $132 +$107 +81%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $51 +$38 +75%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $365 −$360 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $132 +$105 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $99 +$45 +46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $144 +$101 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $203 +$142 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $132 −$120 -91%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $132 −$130 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $86 −$85 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $132 +$86 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $164 −$161 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $69 −$68 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $180 −$177 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $100 +$79 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $102 −$101 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ta Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 31 $101 +$85 +84%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 31 $51 +$26 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $51 +$38 +75%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 31 $46 +$33 +73%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $41 −$40 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $61 +$42 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $46 +$39 +85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $51 +$61 +120%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $170 +$87 +51%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $51 +$40 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$3,250
other 5% −$391
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 0m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 0m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 94¢ $358 9m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 82¢ $180 2h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $239 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 23¢ $76 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $132 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $132 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $132 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $471 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $298 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $99 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 87¢ $199 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $111 28h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $133 28h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 91¢ $203 28h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 99¢ $238 28h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $47 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 33¢ $48 32h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $44 33h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $152 33h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 33h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $132 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +16.2% +5.1% 55% 55% -11.1%
≤30d 93 +13.0% +2.2% 59% 59% -12.9%
≤90d 268 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 49% -21.4%
all 304 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 49% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 49% -19.7%
10% -25.5% 49% -27.4%
15% -32.7% 45% -34.4%
20% -39.3% 37% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.51 · official $50.51 (match) · 513 history records