Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x480c…36c3 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%63W / 7L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$8
other 27% +$25
tech 15% +$4
politics 13% +$146
world 6% −$11
economics 3% $0
finance 1% +$1
sports 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.3%
all 70 -3.1% -12.3% 90% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -8.9%
10% -20.7% 3% -17.6%
15% -28.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -35.4% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$663
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses63 / 7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 75
History coverage612d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 87¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 21? Jun 21 $240 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $178 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $128 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? Jun 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 22 $92 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $142 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $134 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 12 $244 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 12 $138 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 12 $144 $0 +0%
Will the People's Bank of China decrease rates in April? May 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $124 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $148 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 16 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 16 $188 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Apr 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 11 $180 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Apr 11 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 1 Mar 22 $311 +$2 +1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $168 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? Mar 10 $318 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 08 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? Feb 08 $165 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 08 $190 $0 +0%
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? Jan 30 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 27 $180 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 15 $165 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 15 $176 +$1 +0%
BNB all time high by December 31? Jan 15 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 25 $240 +$5 +2%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 14 $308 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 14 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 09 $165 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.30 on October 14? Oct 22 $255 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 14 $158 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 20 $200 +$3 +2%
Ethereum above $3600 on August 11? Aug 19 $260 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 11 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $203 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 BUY No 93¢ $32 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $180 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $201 2d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $240 6d
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $178 14d
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $128 27d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $89 33d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $78 38d
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? BUY No 100¢ $136 39d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $92 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $160 43d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $188 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $78 43d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 43d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $129 43d
Will the People's Bank of China decrease rates in April? BUY No 100¢ $145 63d
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 63d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $144 69d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 69d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $148 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $171 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $170 75d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $244 75d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April BUY No 99¢ $188 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.73 · official $662.73 (match) · 150 history records