Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x480b…c41d crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-13%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$74
politics 17% −$3
crypto 16% $0
sports 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 0% -24.5%
all 13 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 0% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -21.8%
10% -22.0% 0% -29.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -36.1%
20% -36.4% 0% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $263 −$74 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? May 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 19? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $9 −$1 -17%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $75 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $23 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $39 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $41 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $42 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $4 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $114 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $114 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 94d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 100d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $24 114d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $24 114d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $7 114d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $9 115d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $19 115d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $21 116d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes $4 117d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $4 117d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records