Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4807…d57b
crypto · 86 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$18 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day56.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$14 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$9 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$18 +416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$16 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$11 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$17
other 7% +$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +23.5% +11.8% 45% 44% -5.6%
≤30d 84 +23.5% +11.8% 45% 44% -5.6%
≤90d 84 +23.5% +11.8% 45% 44% -5.6%
all 84 +23.5% +11.8% 45% 44% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.8% 44% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here +1.1% 42% -14.7%
15% -8.7% 39% -22.9%
20% -17.6% 37% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.70 · official $28.70 (match) · 204 history records