Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x4807…0103 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$40 (-11%) realized −$29 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.8% +27.4% 100% 100% +24.0%
≤30d 2 +40.8% +27.4% 100% 100% +24.0%
≤90d 2 +40.8% +27.4% 100% 100% +24.0%
all 2 +40.8% +27.4% 100% 100% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 100% +24.0%
10% +15.2% 100% +12.1%
15% +4.0% 50% +1.3%
20% -6.2% 0% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)2 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $65 $58 −$7 (-10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $24 21h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 45h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 45h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 45h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $69 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.71 · official $257.71 (match) · 32 history records