Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4806…052b crypto 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$394 (+7%) realized +$394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%55W / 73L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day136.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 39% -3.7%
≤30d 128 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 39% -3.7%
≤90d 128 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 39% -3.7%
all 128 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 39% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 39% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 37% -12.9%
15% -35.9% 33% -21.3%
20% -42.1% 29% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$28 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses55 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day136.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $184 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $145 +$175 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $81 +$71 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $130 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$49 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $149 +$41 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$15 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $34 +$80 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$7 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$33 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$62 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $64 +$38 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$60 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $32 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $66 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $41 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $75 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $70 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $65 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.24 · official $2.24 (match) · 421 history records