Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4804…3f54
politics · 231 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses52 / 175
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)227 / 231
History coverage136d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 09 $38 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $37 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 06 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $46 −$1 -1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 05 $22 $0 -1%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $82 −$1 -2%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 49% −$12
other 27% −$2
sports 9% −$2
crypto 7% +$1
world 6% −$9
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 2m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 48m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 59m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $10 3h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 25h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 27h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 27h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 28h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 28h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 34h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 41h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 41h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 42h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 43h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 47h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $10 4d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 4d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $9 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 91 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 135 -0.9% -10.3% 15% 0% -10.4%
all 227 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.98 · official $25.98 (match) · 1255 history records