Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4803…256c crypto 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1836 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$920 (-2%) realized −$920 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%239W / 672L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1835.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1836 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 911 -49.6% -54.4% 26% 23% -21.9%
≤30d 911 -49.6% -54.4% 26% 23% -21.9%
≤90d 911 -49.6% -54.4% 26% 23% -21.9%
all 911 -49.6% -54.4% 26% 23% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1835.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.4% 23% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -58.8% 20% -29.4%
15% -62.7% 18% -36.2%
20% -66.4% 15% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$36 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$920
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses239 / 672
Open positions0
Markets (closed)911 / 450
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1835.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 911 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $68 −$68 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $530 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $248 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $408 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.15 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records