Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47fc…9865 crypto 1126 markets active 7h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$217 (+3%) realized +$217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%520W / 554L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$56
14 days+$404
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$211
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -6.4% -15.3% 45% 45% -11.8%
≤30d 883 +2.6% -7.1% 48% 48% -3.7%
≤90d 1074 +2.2% -7.5% 48% 48% -4.0%
all 1074 +2.2% -7.5% 48% 48% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 48% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 47% -13.2%
15% -24.5% 46% -21.6%
20% -31.9% 45% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses520 / 554
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1074 / 1126
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1074 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$17 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$13 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$22 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$12 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$18 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$15 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$16 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $0.00 · 1872 history records