Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47fb…0c7b sports 756 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,077 (+1%) realized +$2,818 · open −$741
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%399W / 351L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$1,381est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$485
7 days+$1,746
14 days−$8,899
30 days−$8,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$7,886
other 48% +$8,171
world 1% +$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +37.4% +24.3% 61% 57% +41.1%
≤30d 178 -21.8% -29.3% 36% 35% -27.7%
≤90d 750 +0.6% -8.9% 53% 52% -8.9%
all 750 +0.6% -8.9% 53% 52% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 52% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 50% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 45% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 36% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$205 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized+$2,818
Unrealized−$741
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses399 / 351
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,381
Open positions6
Markets (closed)750 / 756
History coverage71d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 750 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $471 $472 +$2 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $453 $459 +$6 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $174 $169 −$5 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 21¢ 0¢ $63 $1 −$62 (-98%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 46¢ 0¢ $684 $1 −$683 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $155 +$145 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $138 +$162 +117%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $170 +$130 +76%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $219 +$81 +37%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $639 −$213 -33%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $309 +$141 +46%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $189 +$261 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 +$351 +352%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $213 +$237 +111%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $218 +$232 +107%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$1 -11%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $12 −$10 -83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$6 -12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 −$7 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 −$2 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $292 +$158 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $171 +$279 +163%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $170 +$32 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $62 −$59 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $142 −$7 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $42 −$1 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $129 −$3 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $142 −$7 -5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$1 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $69 −$60 -87%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $142 −$7 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $124 −$8 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$230 -72%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $56 −$6 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $260 −$8 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $243 −$243 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $152 −$152 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $212 −$212 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $138 −$138 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $194 −$194 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $153 48m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $63 58m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $223 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $132 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $132 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $137 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $140 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $470 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $111 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $149 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $225 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $211 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $211 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $170 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $176 7h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $219 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $37 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $6 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $37 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $32 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.27 · official $1,218.30 (match) · 1801 history records