Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
47 0x47f4…936b sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,579 (-33%) realized −$1,579 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$273
other 22% −$1,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +27.3% +15.2% 71% 64% -23.6%
≤30d 14 +27.3% +15.2% 71% 64% -23.6%
≤90d 14 +27.3% +15.2% 71% 64% -23.6%
all 14 +27.3% +15.2% 71% 64% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 64% -23.6%
10% +4.2% 64% -30.9%
15% -5.9% 64% -37.6%
20% -15.1% 64% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$525 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $419 +$225 +54%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 28 $520 +$48 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $132 +$134 +102%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $142 +$113 +79%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 +$50 +100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $113 +$134 +119%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $113 −$76 -67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $101 +$72 +71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres AND Atlanta Braves vs. San Fr Jun 27 $1,138 +$576 +51%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,031 −$1,012 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$4 +89%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 +$2 +76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $1,020 −$1,006 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 81¢ $644 7m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $99 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $43 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $269 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $568 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $214 2h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $53 2h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $7 2h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $13 2h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $234 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 49¢ $132 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $142 20h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 21h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $113 31h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Inaki Montes 13¢ $37 31h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 38¢ $113 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 58¢ $101 38h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres AND Atlanta Braves vs. San Fr BUY 66¢ $1,138 45h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi BUY 52¢ $0 45h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,022 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 53¢ $1,020 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records