Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47f1…59af other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+12%) realized +$14 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$21
crypto 33% −$11
sports 28% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 29 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 38% -4.8%
≤90d 29 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 38% -4.8%
all 29 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 38% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 38% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -14.0%
15% -29.1% 38% -22.3%
20% -36.1% 34% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +225%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +440%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +75%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$4 +143%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 11h
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 69 history records