Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47ee…8055 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$19
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$14
other 27% +$2
crypto 17% −$62
sports 9% −$12
finance 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 28 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 4% -8.1%
≤90d 40 -3.6% -12.7% 35% 2% -11.1%
all 43 -5.6% -14.6% 35% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 2% -11.2%
10% -22.8% 0% -19.7%
15% -30.2% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage485d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $108 +$7 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $84 +$11 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 -15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $10 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $42 −$3 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $94 −$1 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 22 $566 −$62 -11%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 22 $267 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $293 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 20 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $63 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $62 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $62 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $64 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $39 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $75 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.02 · official $62.78 (match) · 183 history records