Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

47 0x47ed…0127 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$42 (+13%) realized +$42 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-13.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-4.1%	-13.2%	60%	60%	+40.3%
≤30d	5	-4.1%	-13.2%	60%	60%	+40.3%
≤90d	5	-4.1%	-13.2%	60%	60%	+40.3%
all	5	-4.1%	-13.2%	60%	60%	+40.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.2%	60%	+40.3%
10%	-21.5%	60%	+26.9%
15%	-29.1%	60%	+14.6%
20%	-36.1%	20%	+3.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +55% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$5 · ×12.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×18.38 per $1 lost it wins $18.38

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$42

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$15	−$5	-32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$104	+$96	+93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$40	+39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	46m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY No	1¢	$5	49m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	52¢	$18	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL	92¢	$200	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$140	1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	0¢	$5	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	47¢	$104	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.77 · official $4.77 (match) · 11 history records