Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x47ec…10a0 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,082 (+27%) realized +$2,082 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$971per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$7,037
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +70.6% +54.3% 88% 75% +71.3%
≤30d 8 +70.6% +54.3% 88% 75% +71.3%
≤90d 8 +70.6% +54.3% 88% 75% +71.3%
all 8 +70.6% +54.3% 88% 75% +71.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.3% 75% +71.3%
10% ← realistic here +39.5% 75% +54.9%
15% +26.1% 75% +39.9%
20% +13.7% 75% +26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,005 vs −$100 · ×10.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×70.37 per $1 lost it wins $70.37
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,082
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$971
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $2,700 +$2,300 +85%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,519 +$1,101 +72%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,018 +$1,484 +146%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $245 +$478 +195%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $170 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,016 +$1,121 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$100 -95%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $998 +$553 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $507 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $152 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $160 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $320 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2,068 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $1,012 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1,018 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 33¢ $245 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $110 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $1,016 11h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 51¢ $65 14h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 65¢ $83 14h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 65¢ $38 14h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 69¢ $3 14h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 66¢ $505 14h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 63¢ $303 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records