Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e7…9cc7 crypto 703 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,501 (-26%) realized −$1,499 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate38%268W / 434L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day84.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$184
14 days−$177
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$572
other 5% −$27
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 21% -24.1%
≤30d 404 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 18% -21.7%
≤90d 702 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 21% -18.9%
all 702 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 21% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 21% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 15% -26.7%
15% -34.0% 12% -33.8%
20% -40.5% 9% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1,499
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses268 / 434
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)702 / 703
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day84.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 702 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 36¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 56¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$7 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +82%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +110%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $14.07 · 3500 history records