Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
47 0x47e6…9af9 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$269 (+18%) realized +$269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$60
other 24% +$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 38% +9.6%
≤30d 16 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 38% +9.6%
≤90d 16 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 38% +9.6%
all 16 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 38% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 38% +9.6%
10% -25.6% 25% -0.9%
15% -32.8% 12% -10.5%
20% -39.4% 12% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$10 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.01 per $1 lost it wins $6.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$16 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $413 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$6 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $359 +$252 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $105 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $115 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records