Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e6…c039 weather 1193 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$542 (-1%) realized −$625 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%666W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days+$17
14 days+$57
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -1.8% -11.2% 86% 20% -5.5%
≤30d 211 -1.9% -11.2% 86% 16% -10.3%
≤90d 1170 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 21% -9.6%
all 1170 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 21% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -34.5% 6% -26.1%
20% -40.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,104
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses666 / 504
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1170 / 1193
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 91¢ 94¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 92¢ 93¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 93¢ 86¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 90¢ 94¢ $103 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 94¢ 95¢ $59 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 89¢ 99¢ $51 $57 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? No 93¢ 92¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 92¢ 90¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? No 93¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? No 92¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 89¢ 81¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 94¢ 84¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? No 92¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 −$61 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $107 −$102 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $126 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $183 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 −$174 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$25 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $162 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $180 +$19 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$21 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $182 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $180 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $24 +$23 +98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $49 7m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 86¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 87¢ $152 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $201 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $201 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $139 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $165 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $53 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $201 12h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $183 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $176 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $201 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $59 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 65¢ $129 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $201 15h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $65 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $23 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $201 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $201 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,103.60 · official $2,103.60 (match) · 3500 history records