Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47e4…aa4a other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,119 (-7%) realized −$1,057 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days+$799
14 days+$326
30 days+$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1,204
sports 31% +$2,378
crypto 19% −$690
world 12% −$1,340
politics 0% −$22
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -0.8%
≤30d 45 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 40% -5.6%
≤90d 45 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 40% -5.6%
all 52 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 35% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 35% -14.8%
10% -35.6% 35% -23.0%
15% -41.8% 33% -30.4%
20% -47.5% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$313 vs −$222 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1,497
Realized−$1,057
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage165d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $681 $872 +$192 (+28%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 36¢ $344 $228 −$116 (-34%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $240 $210 −$30 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $145 $110 −$35 (-24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $100 $34 −$66 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $829 +$514 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $226 −$87 -39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $752 −$736 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 −$116 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$308 +307%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $345 −$338 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $803 +$246 +31%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 −$125 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $655 +$373 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $233 −$227 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $278 +$305 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $496 −$489 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,007 −$996 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $561 +$615 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $530 +$2,029 +383%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $237 −$235 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $255 −$252 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $392 +$430 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $254 −$251 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$73 +72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 +$121 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$60 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $117 +$64 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $143 +$121 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $133 −$126 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $207 +$169 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $169 +$154 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $210 −$203 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $330 −$318 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $154 +$104 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $389 +$15 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $284 +$298 +105%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $15 −$14 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $348 +$246 +71%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $75 −$22 -30%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $483 −$483 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 25 $705 −$591 -84%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 25 $344 +$25 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 14 $250 −$250 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 14m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $348 16m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $139 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $138 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $205 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $63 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $247 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $296 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $107 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $226 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $456 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $829 36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $119 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $141 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $57 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $147 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $803 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $128 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $152 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $44 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $655 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $186 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $95 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $400 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $195 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,007 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,496.87 · official $1,496.87 (match) · 277 history records