Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e4…ee6b crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%328W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$28
politics 5% −$15
finance 3% −$18
other 2% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 338 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 338 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 338 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses328 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)338 / 342
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 87¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $14 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 95¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.28 · official $77.28 (match) · 681 history records