Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
47 0x47e3…84c3 other 853 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%849W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$14
sports 44% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$3
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 174 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 821 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 2% -9.1%
all 852 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses849 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)852 / 853
History coverage93d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Yes 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Bellinger: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Colby vs Chan Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ziegann vs. Seifert: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: illwill (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Edouard Villoslada vs Carles Rojas Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Guilleme (-1.5) vs Ciavarella (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ryan Thomas: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mehdi Taremi: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "What a fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Callum McCowatt: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Verstappen? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Adel: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Haissem Hassan: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Martín Zubimendi: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Víctor Muñoz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Passaro/Vasami vs. Bondioli/Caniato: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ismaël Gharbi: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Evann Guessand: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Stabaek IF 3 - 3 Egersunds IK? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Derrick Etienne: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
John McGinn: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Miro Muheim: 2+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Homam Elamin: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 22m
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 52m
Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Cody Bellinger: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Set 1 Winner: Colby vs Chan BUY Chan 100¢ $5 6h
Ziegann vs. Seifert: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: illwill (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $5 14h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Edouard Villoslada vs Carles Rojas BUY Edouard Villoslada 100¢ $4 14h
Set Handicap: Guilleme (-1.5) vs Ciavarella (+1.5) BUY Guilleme 100¢ $5 17h
Ryan Thomas: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Mehdi Taremi: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24h
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Callum McCowatt: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the announcers say "What a fight" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24h
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Verstappen? BUY Verstappen 100¢ $5 26h
Ibrahim Adel: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Haissem Hassan: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Martín Zubimendi: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Víctor Muñoz: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Passaro/Vasami vs. Bondioli/Caniato: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 36h
Ismaël Gharbi: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 45h
Gustaf Nilsson: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Herman Johansson: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Evann Guessand: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.50 · official $9.50 (match) · 2019 history records