Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x47e3…47c7 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$173 (+21%) realized +$141 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$63
14 days+$171
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$41
sports 22% +$185
crypto 12% +$10
finance 6% −$15
culture 4% +$14
world 2% −$3
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 50% +56.8%
≤30d 20 +17.1% +5.9% 40% 40% +5.9%
≤90d 26 +17.2% +6.0% 46% 46% +9.7%
all 26 +17.2% +6.0% 46% 46% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 46% +9.7%
10% -4.1% 46% -0.8%
15% -13.4% 38% -10.4%
20% -21.9% 35% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage44d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $85 +$10 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$22 +178%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$58 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 +$77 +291%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $26 −$21 -79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$64 +249%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$70 +172%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $20 +$38 +184%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting May 27 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 25 $16 +$5 +32%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 21 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $20 −$3 -13%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $34 +$16 +49%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $34 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $11 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $58 16d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting BUY Yes $100 24d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 26d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 42¢ $31 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.15 · official $260.73 (match) · 94 history records