Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47e2…5a23
world · 150 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$43 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$66 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$275
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses79 / 36
Open positions35
Markets (closed)115 / 150
History coverage56d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 35 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$34
14 days+$28
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 36¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 63¢ 50¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 47¢ 78¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+65%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 83¢ 89¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 54¢ 80¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 57¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 52¢ 72¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 74¢ 58¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-22%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 68¢ 56¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 64¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 73¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 35¢ 22¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-39%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 54¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 53¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 85¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 43¢ 27¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 74¢ 65¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 22¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-54%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 49¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 55¢ 37¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 08 $4 −$2 -59%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $10 +$8 +82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$5 +27%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $9 +$13 +137%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$3 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22 +$12 +53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$25 +81%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +45%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $10 +$12 +116%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $18 +$10 +58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 31 $8 −$5 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $6 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $26 +$11 +41%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $2 +$1 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $10 +$4 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $3 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $29 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 82% +$143
finance 16% −$100
other 2% +$4
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 95¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 88¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 55¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $17 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $16 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $3 3d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 95¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.3% -18.8% 63% 58% -29.5%
≤30d 80 -20.9% -28.4% 58% 49% -21.1%
≤90d 115 +5.5% -4.5% 69% 60% -3.1%
all 115 +5.5% -4.5% 69% 60% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 60% -3.1%
10% -13.7% 46% -12.4%
15% -22.0% 30% -20.8%
20% -29.7% 22% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.70 · official $274.43 (match) · 426 history records