Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e1…e621 other 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$20 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%88W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$28
14 days+$56
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$154
world 31% −$386
politics 16% +$72
crypto 10% +$35
sports 6% +$20
tech 2% +$4
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.7% -7.1% 65% 48% -8.6%
≤30d 76 +4.3% -5.7% 68% 50% -15.1%
≤90d 136 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 43% -10.6%
all 136 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 43% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% -10.6%
10% -20.9% 32% -19.2%
15% -28.5% 21% -27.0%
20% -35.6% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1,077
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses88 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions55
Markets (closed)136 / 191
History coverage41d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 75¢ 69¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 88¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+18%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 77¢ 81¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 61¢ 87¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Will Any Team Participate in 3+ Penalty Shootouts in the Knockout Phase? No 83¢ 82¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 48¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 77¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 82¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 70¢ 54¢ $37 $29 −$9 (-23%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 71¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 63¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 72¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 88¢ $12 $23 +$10 (+82%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 56¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 72¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 59¢ 49¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $47 +$8 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$11 +104%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Jun 17 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $57 −$21 -37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $132 −$35 -27%
Will Lionel Messi score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$14 +57%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$3 -10%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +17%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 14 $85 +$6 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$34 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 14 $4 $0 -12%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Haiti elections delayed again? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$2 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -31%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $122 +$12 +10%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $13 +$3 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $28 +$7 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$4 +41%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $20 +$4 +18%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $86 +$84 +98%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $15 +$1 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $86 +$100 +115%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $10 40m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 41m
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $25 57m
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $3 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $1 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $6 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $10 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 3h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez SELL Alvarez 11¢ $5 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $10 4h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? SELL No 37¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $25 24h
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 24h
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 25h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $5 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $15 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 29h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $15 32h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $19 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $27 42h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $21 42h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? SELL No 23¢ $6 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.22 · official $1,073.17 (match) · 500 history records