Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47de…02c9 crypto 189 markets active 10h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-9%) realized −$87 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%75W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$39
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$127
world 3% −$4
other 3% +$14
politics 1% −$2
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 27% -17.7%
≤30d 151 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 32% -23.7%
≤90d 185 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 30% -22.6%
all 185 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 30% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 30% -22.6%
10% -34.0% 18% -30.0%
15% -40.4% 12% -36.8%
20% -46.2% 8% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses75 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 50¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+99%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$4 +23%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$5 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 10h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.09 · official $4.09 (match) · 621 history records