Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x47de…007d other 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,434 (+14%) realized +$25,257 · open −$14,823
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$6,323per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$489est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$7,414
sports 40% −$4,413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.4% +9.0% 60% 50% +17.1%
≤30d 10 +20.4% +9.0% 60% 50% +17.1%
≤90d 10 +20.4% +9.0% 60% 50% +17.1%
all 10 +20.4% +9.0% 60% 50% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 50% +17.1%
10% -1.5% 50% +5.9%
15% ← realistic here -11.0% 50% -4.3%
20% -19.7% 50% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,314 vs −$3,515 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$25,257
Unrealized−$14,823
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$489
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6,323
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 0¢ $11,973 $12 −$11,961 (-100%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2,869 $7 −$2,863 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14,685 +$8,709 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,996 −$1,966 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $9,130 +$4,682 +51%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $5,930 +$2,998 +51%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 14 $2,962 −$286 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14,108 +$15,482 +110%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $4,772 −$4,702 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $7,195 −$7,105 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $1,881 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $23,394 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,937 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $10,275 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $4,895 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $9,790 6h
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 14h
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $747 16h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 91¢ $13,253 16h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 25¢ $559 16h
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $996 16h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $8,929 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 17h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL NC Dinos 42¢ $2,676 18h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 65¢ $991 20h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 65¢ $991 20h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 73¢ $988 20h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $1,981 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $996 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 47¢ $996 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 52¢ $994 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 65¢ $981 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 51¢ $994 20h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 31¢ $1,800 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 55¢ $1,191 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 55¢ $993 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 56¢ $993 20h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 56¢ $992 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.01 · official $19.01 (match) · 46 history records