Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47dd…036c crypto 1543 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%1472W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day84.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$30
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% -28.1%
≤30d 1538 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 1538 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 6% -9.7%
all 1538 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1472 / 66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1538 / 1543
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.21 · official $53.21 (match) · 3500 history records