Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x47dc…5ebb crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$101 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$372
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$164
crypto 20% −$382
sports 5% +$187
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +66.1% +50.3% 67% 58% +20.7%
≤30d 43 +21.2% +9.7% 51% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 43 +21.2% +9.7% 51% 44% -9.6%
all 43 +21.2% +9.7% 51% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 44% -9.6%
10% -0.8% 37% -18.2%
15% -10.4% 37% -26.1%
20% -19.2% 28% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$77 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage13d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $105 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $92 $64 −$27 (-30%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $463 +$49 +11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$179 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$45 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 −$55 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $210 +$100 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $164 −$111 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $734 −$242 -33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $344 +$308 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$246 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $445 −$347 -78%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $793 +$26 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $109 −$108 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$216 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$45 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$29 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$83 +398%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $77 −$4 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $107 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $109 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $362 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $359 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $65 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $53 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $53 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $202 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $210 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.10 · official $337.10 (match) · 118 history records