Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
47 0x47dc…14d3 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$23
politics 19% −$5
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$15
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.1% -9.7% 12% 8% -9.6%
all 108 -0.1% -9.7% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage84d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $273 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $238 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $240 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $241 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $255 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $255 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $499 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $450 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $467 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $51 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $98 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $249 29d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $249 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $228 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.56 · official $36.56 (match) · 299 history records