Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47d9…54b7 sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$965 (+1%) realized +$965 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%89W / 43L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day76.4pace
Fees−$1,380est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,691
7 days+$73
14 days+$526
30 days+$904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$575
other 8% +$340
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +114.2% +93.8% 75% 31% -10.0%
≤30d 132 +44.1% +30.3% 67% 33% -8.5%
≤90d 132 +44.1% +30.3% 67% 33% -8.5%
all 132 +44.1% +30.3% 67% 33% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.3% 33% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here +17.9% 23% -17.3%
15% +6.5% 16% -25.3%
20% -4.0% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$150 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses89 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,380
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage26d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day76.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,274 +$156 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $508 +$99 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $243 +$417 +172%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,558 −$1,249 -80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,960 +$27 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,415 +$340 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $128 +$77 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4,504 +$528 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $812 +$67 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,881 −$231 -12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,252 −$172 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $285 +$14 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $924 +$20 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,415 +$512 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,865 +$224 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3,270 +$149 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $753 +$122 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $233 +$20 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $388 −$10 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,159 +$23 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,394 +$75 +5%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 +$92 +1455%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $820 +$298 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $475 +$95 +20%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $210 +$51 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $810 −$102 -13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,721 −$1,511 -88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,195 +$1,021 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 +$5 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,520 +$2 +0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $500 +$26 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $406 +$13 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $501 +$4 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $76 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $52 +$8 +15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $113 +$6 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,886 +$90 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,063 +$15 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $844 +$73 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,037 −$31 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,950 −$129 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $884 −$418 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $57 +$24 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 +$6 +3%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $26 +$25 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $38 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $0 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $19 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $39 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $19 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $45 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $13 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $5 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $17 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $36 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $65 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $75 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $17 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $9 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $4 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $3 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $104 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $56 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $119 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2030 history records