Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47d1…7618 other 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,509 (+7%) realized +$2,409 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate80%164W / 40L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$466
7 days+$712
14 days+$1,048
30 days+$1,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$2,641
world 1% +$39
politics 1% −$200
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.7% +1.1% 89% 83% -1.1%
≤30d 51 +24.5% +12.6% 90% 88% +1.3%
≤90d 121 +15.7% +4.7% 84% 83% -2.2%
all 204 +10.1% -0.4% 80% 79% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 79% -3.0%
10% -9.9% 52% -12.3%
15% -18.6% 26% -20.8%
20% -26.6% 11% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$136 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized+$2,409
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses164 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage162d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 81¢ 98¢ $494 $597 +$103 (+21%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $494 $491 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $484 +$58 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $453 +$124 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $403 +$123 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $402 +$63 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $402 +$98 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $375 +$135 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $445 +$88 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $446 −$443 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 +$160 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $374 +$204 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $348 +$74 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $346 +$50 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $332 +$86 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$61 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $454 −$450 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $354 +$193 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $452 −$450 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $422 +$96 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $384 +$183 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $372 +$59 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $362 +$62 +17%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $322 +$86 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $321 +$47 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $312 +$66 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $282 +$86 +31%
Exact Score: Georgia 2 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 06 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $271 +$43 +16%
Exact Score: Georgia 1 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $252 +$86 +34%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $241 +$26 +11%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $222 +$76 +34%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $222 +$76 +34%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 $0 +27%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $201 +$52 +26%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $201 +$49 +24%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $222 +$68 +31%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $201 +$58 +29%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $202 +$84 +42%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $201 +$32 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $496 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $497 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $484 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $453 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $402 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $402 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $375 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $445 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $446 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $403 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $374 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $346 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $348 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $332 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $301 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $301 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $454 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $354 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $452 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $422 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $384 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $372 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $362 11d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 78¢ $322 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $321 12d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $312 13d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $301 13d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.92 · official $1,087.93 (match) · 378 history records