Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47cf…ddbb
world · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage290d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 0 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the UK state banquet on Se Sep 19 $22 $0 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 17 $2 $0 -15%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $9 $0 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$1
other 27% $0
politics 19% $0
culture 13% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $10 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $25 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $34 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $4 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $6 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $5 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $10 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 33h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 33h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 8% -9.8%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records