Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47cd…9a96 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$24
14 days−$33
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 24% −$23
politics 10% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$6
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage140d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $364 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $221 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 20 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $431 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $355 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $886 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $874 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $571 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $656 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 57m
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 7h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 9h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 13h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 16h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 21h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 26h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 28h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 32h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 40h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 41h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 44h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 46h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 47h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.42 · official $50.42 (match) · 1508 history records