Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

47 0x47cc…db21 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,889 (-23%) realized −$2,889 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate39%9W / 14L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$518per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-40.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+1.0%	-8.7%	100%	0%	-8.7%
≤30d	1	+1.0%	-8.7%	100%	0%	-8.7%
≤90d	2	-49.5%	-54.3%	50%	0%	-94.9%
all	23	-34.1%	-40.4%	39%	35%	-30.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.4%	35%	-30.6%
10%	-46.1%	35%	-37.2%
15%	-51.3%	35%	-43.3%
20%	-56.1%	22%	-48.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -94% too few recent

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$792) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -87% → late +14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$430 vs −$483 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized−$2,889

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses9 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage163d

Avg bet$518

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	88¢	88¢	$9	$9	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Jun 29	$37	$0	+1%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	Apr 07	$628	−$628	-100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers	Mar 26	$476	−$476	-100%
Spurs vs. Heat	Mar 23	$510	−$510	-100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	Feb 12	$759	−$759	-100%
Hawks vs. Hornets	Feb 12	$910	+$490	+54%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors	Feb 10	$792	+$308	+39%
Clippers vs. Kings	Feb 07	$793	+$507	+64%
Hornets vs. Rockets	Feb 06	$574	+$826	+144%
Nuggets vs. Knicks	Feb 05	$884	+$416	+47%
Nuggets vs. Pistons	Feb 04	$768	+$432	+56%
Spurs vs. Hornets	Feb 01	$399	+$651	+163%
Lakers vs. Wizards	Jan 30	$264	−$264	-100%
Bulls vs. Pacers	Jan 28	$495	−$495	-100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets	Jan 27	$341	−$341	-100%
Nets vs. Clippers	Jan 25	$252	−$252	-100%
Celtics vs. Nets	Jan 23	$230	−$230	-100%
Nuggets vs. Wizards	Jan 22	$368	−$368	-100%
Pacers vs. Celtics	Jan 21	$209	−$209	-100%
Suns vs. 76ers	Jan 20	$892	−$892	-100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers	Jan 20	$503	+$237	+47%
Hornets vs. Nuggets	Jan 18	$371	−$371	-100%
Suns vs. Knicks	Jan 17	$960	−$960	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$9	1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$38	1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$37	41d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Hawks	39¢	$624	83d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Hawks	39¢	$4	83d
Heat vs. Cavaliers	BUY Heat	34¢	$89	95d
Heat vs. Cavaliers	BUY Heat	34¢	$1	95d
Heat vs. Cavaliers	BUY Heat	34¢	$386	95d
Spurs vs. Heat	BUY Heat	34¢	$4	98d
Spurs vs. Heat	BUY Heat	34¢	$1	98d
Spurs vs. Heat	BUY Heat	34¢	$5	98d
Spurs vs. Heat	BUY Heat	34¢	$500	98d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	BUY Nuggets	69¢	$759	137d
Hawks vs. Hornets	BUY Hornets	65¢	$910	138d
Grizzlies vs. Warriors	BUY Warriors	72¢	$792	140d
Clippers vs. Kings	BUY Clippers	61¢	$793	143d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$55	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$139	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$8	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$10	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$91	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$39	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$57	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$1	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$1	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$5	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$3	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$9	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$10	144d
Hornets vs. Rockets	BUY Hornets	41¢	$20	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.85 · official $8.85 (match) · 117 history records