Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47c9…de82 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+0%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 56L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 13% +$68
sports 3% +$42
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 55 -7.4% -16.3% 20% 15% -9.5%
all 73 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 15% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 15% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 10% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage609d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $360 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 25 $171 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $341 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $11 +$10 +93%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $10 +$3 +29%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $21 +$6 +29%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 42h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 43h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $105 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $9 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $34 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.02 · official $105.02 (match) · 291 history records