Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47c6…1ca6 finance 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,021 (+3%) realized +$951 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$845per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days−$1,227
14 days+$518
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$87
finance 29% +$561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.2% -43.2% 36% 36% -16.7%
≤30d 38 -7.2% -16.0% 47% 37% -7.8%
≤90d 40 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 35% -7.8%
all 40 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 35% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 35% -7.8%
10% -24.8% 20% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -32.0% 12% -24.7%
20% -38.7% 10% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,124) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$210 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$2,599
Realized+$951
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage34d
Avg bet$845
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? Down 13¢ 99¢ $351 $2,598 +$2,248 (+641%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Up 83¢ 0¢ $2,179 $1 −$2,178 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 25 $1,362 +$1,000 +73%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $5,946 −$905 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 24 $319 −$159 -50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $474 −$474 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $2,349 +$777 +33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,244 +$172 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 21 $665 −$665 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 21 $1,047 −$947 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 21 $401 −$401 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,601 +$415 +26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $561 +$677 +121%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,124 +$972 +86%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $872 +$49 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $789 −$152 -19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,382 +$169 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $1,415 −$156 -11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,370 +$186 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $379 −$60 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,125 +$67 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $762 −$81 -11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $720 +$95 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $351 +$32 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $765 −$25 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? Jun 06 $120 −$29 -24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? Jun 06 $78 +$8 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 06 $201 +$97 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 06 $602 +$94 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $251 −$24 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $477 +$32 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $512 −$89 -17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $186 +$106 +57%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,031 −$72 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $24 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $111 +$25 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $148 −$1 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $20 −$12 -57%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $77 +$6 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 92¢ $18 27m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 11¢ $1 27m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 11¢ $1 28m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 61¢ $90 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 53¢ $81 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 26¢ $37 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 85¢ $128 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 85¢ $128 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 85¢ $129 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $16 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 86¢ $108 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 86¢ $35 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 86¢ $130 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 87¢ $13 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 89¢ $13 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 10¢ $7 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 88¢ $56 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 88¢ $133 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 10¢ $16 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 89¢ $134 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 10¢ $15 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 89¢ $134 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,599.38 · official $2,517.66 · 1673 history records