Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47c5…b431
crypto · 231 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,926 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,925 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,925
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses136 / 592
Open positions1
Markets (closed)728 / 231
History coverage3d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1042.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 728 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,685
7 days−$1,925
14 days−$1,925
30 days−$1,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 74¢ 86¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$10 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 728 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 6% -19.5%
≤30d 728 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 6% -19.5%
≤90d 728 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 6% -19.5%
all 728 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 6% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1042.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.9% 6% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -52.9% 4% -27.2%
15% -57.4% 4% -34.3%
20% -61.6% 4% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $38.90 (match) · 3500 history records