Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47c0…7982
weather · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$83 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$83 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage113d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Clemson win the 2025-2026 ACC Men’s Basketball regular season championship? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 23? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Moutinho 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will England win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 24? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris FC win on 2026-03-08? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 23? No 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $85 +$9 +10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $79 +$1 +2%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +424%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $63 −$2 -4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $200 −$10 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $43 +$31 +71%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Mar 08 $61 +$18 +30%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $44 +$5 +10%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 06 $36 +$2 +5%
Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliam Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 05 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026? Mar 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 1? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Pr Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Feb 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on February 27? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliam Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliament Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliam Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clemson win the 2025-2026 ACC Men’s Basketball regular season cha Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Feb 26 $0 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Feb 25 $0 $0 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February Feb 23 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 23? Feb 23 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 23 Feb 23 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 23? Feb 23 $4 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 23? Feb 23 $7 −$4 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 24? Feb 23 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 24? Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 23? Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$64
other 24% −$108
weather 7% −$33
politics 7% −$3
finance 4% +$3
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 100¢ $100 36m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 94¢ $94 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $94 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $85 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $80 13h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 14h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $79 14h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $54 21h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $54 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 45h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 45h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $63 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $64 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $37 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 18¢ $37 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 42¢ $90 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 58¢ $90 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $73 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 40¢ $73 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $43 4d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 92¢ $45 89d
Will Paris FC win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 96d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 96d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $61 96d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers SELL Celtics 100¢ $61 96d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Celtics 86¢ $52 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.5% +9.0% 50% 20% -12.7%
≤30d 10 +20.5% +9.0% 50% 20% -12.7%
≤90d 12 +9.4% -1.1% 50% 17% -12.7%
all 58 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 14% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 14% -15.5%
10% -41.0% 10% -23.6%
15% -46.7% 9% -31.0%
20% -51.9% 7% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records