Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
47 0x47be…e3dd crypto 521 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,301 (-7%) realized −$3,160 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%272W / 604L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,538
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -85.5% -86.9% 7% 7% -88.3%
≤30d 571 -63.8% -67.2% 18% 18% -70.3%
≤90d 876 -39.4% -45.2% 31% 30% -51.0%
all 876 -39.4% -45.2% 31% 30% -51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 30% -51.0%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 29% -55.7%
15% -55.2% 29% -60.0%
20% -59.6% 27% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$112 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,160
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses272 / 604
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)876 / 521
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 876 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $645 −$645 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $534 −$534 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $590 −$590 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $43 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $89 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $281 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $72 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 3500 history records