Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47bc…c043
sports · 104 markets active 253d ago
0.0score
−$183,574 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$183,574 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,172
Realized−$183,574
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses46 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage321d
Avg bet$9,608
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025? No 28¢ 100¢ $2,857 $10,227 +$7,370 (+258%)
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X? No 98¢ 100¢ $4,169 $4,275 +$107 (+3%)
Will David Sacks be the next CEO of X? No 99¢ 100¢ $663 $670 +$7 (+1%)
Padres vs. Cubs Padres 7¢ 0¢ $6,308 $0 −$6,308 (-100%)
Spread: Rams (-6.5) Rams 59¢ 0¢ $22,052 $0 −$22,052 (-100%)
US government shutdown by October 1? No 1¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
49ers vs. Rams Rams 52¢ 0¢ $34,109 $0 −$34,109 (-100%)
Dolphins vs. Bills Dolphins 7¢ 0¢ $9,704 $0 −$9,704 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July? No 44¢ 0¢ $2,260 $0 −$2,260 (-100%)
Ethereum all time high before 2026? No 68¢ 0¢ $755 $0 −$755 (-100%)
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $356 $0 −$356 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? No 21¢ 0¢ $2,333 $0 −$2,333 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? No 55¢ 0¢ $11,050 $0 −$11,050 (-100%)
Spread: Vikings (-1.5) Bears 53¢ 0¢ $2,650 $0 −$2,650 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Vikings vs. Bears Bears 50¢ 0¢ $12,500 $0 −$12,500 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? No 86¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3100 in July? No 21¢ 0¢ $34,391 $0 −$34,391 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
49ers vs. Rams Oct 03 $34,110 −$34,109 -100%
Will Elon register the America Party before October? Oct 03 $324 +$932 +287%
Spread: Rams (-6.5) Oct 03 $22,052 −$22,052 -100%
Padres vs. Cubs Oct 02 $6,308 −$6,308 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $142 −$142 -100%
Dolphins vs. Bills Sep 19 $9,705 −$9,704 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Sep 19 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Elon register the America Party in July? Sep 19 $8,006 +$4,104 +51%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $27,948 +$2,279 +8%
Spread: Vikings (-1.5) Sep 09 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
Vikings vs. Bears Sep 08 $12,500 −$12,500 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3100 in July? Jul 15 $35,201 −$34,416 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July? Jul 15 $2,260 −$2,260 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Jul 14 $11,050 −$11,050 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jul 13 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Jul 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum all time high before 2026? Jul 12 $755 −$755 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jul 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? Jul 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Jul 11 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2900 in July? Jul 11 $3,736 −$3,736 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? Jul 11 $2,333 −$2,333 -100%
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X? Jul 10 $4,169 +$107 +3%
Will David Sacks be the next CEO of X? Jul 10 $663 +$7 +1%
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? Jul 10 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025? Jul 09 $2,857 +$7,370 +258%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $151,069 +$5,342 +4%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Jul 07 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Jul 07 $356 −$356 -100%
Illinois vs. Kentucky Jul 07 $23,881 −$23,881 -100%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 02 $379 +$1,006 +266%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 02 $358 +$947 +265%
UCLA vs. Tennessee Mar 23 $1,500 −$1,493 -100%
BYU vs. Wisconsin Mar 23 $20,850 −$20,850 -100%
Bruins vs. Sharks Mar 23 $6 +$6 +104%
Michigan vs. Texas A&M Mar 23 $10,533 +$15,022 +143%
Arkansas vs. St. John's Mar 22 $18,714 −$18,714 -100%
Oklahoma vs. UConn Mar 22 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Bryant vs. Michigan State Mar 22 $3,940 −$3,940 -100%
Liberty vs. Oregon Mar 22 $10,267 +$3,623 +35%
Xavier vs. Illinois Mar 22 $68,358 +$25,630 +38%
New Mexico vs. Marquette Mar 22 $25,554 −$25,554 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. St. Mary's Mar 22 $11,279 −$11,279 -100%
Baylor vs. Mississippi State Mar 21 $5,100 +$2,773 +54%
UC San Diego vs. Michigan Mar 21 $16,556 −$16,556 -100%
Utah State vs. UCLA Mar 21 $2,600 +$1,168 +45%
Nets vs. Pacers Mar 21 $12,244 +$16,832 +138%
Georgia vs. Gonzaga Mar 21 $1,666 +$556 +33%
VCU vs. BYU Mar 21 $5,969 +$5,540 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Mar 20 $8,132 +$22,253 +274%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$181,418
other 25% +$47,313
crypto 11% −$65,453
politics 3% +$11,246
world 3% +$2,017
tech 0% +$2,008
finance 0% +$713
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 33¢ $1,059 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 33¢ $1,006 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 33¢ $156 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 33¢ $1,078 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $4 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $152 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $760 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $760 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $101 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $19 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $152 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $4 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $8 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 38¢ $152 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $672 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $687 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $13 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $844 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $39 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $4 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $70 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $43 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 44¢ $71 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 50¢ $399 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 50¢ $4,361 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 50¢ $240 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 60¢ $480 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 55¢ $1,173 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 55¢ $1,882 252d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 58¢ $386 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 104 +14.5% +3.6% 44% 36% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 36% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 36% -33.2%
15% -15.4% 33% -39.7%
20% -23.7% 30% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,171.99 · official $15,171.99 (match) · 3500 history records