Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47bc…5bf1 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,122 (+0%) realized +$1,122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%34W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,511per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$30
14 days−$111
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$129
other 40% −$94
sports 12% +$1,310
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$6
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 -7.0% -15.9% 10% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 107 -14.5% -22.7% 7% 2% -10.0%
all 164 -2.6% -11.9% 21% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -9.1%
10% -20.3% 8% -17.8%
15% -28.0% 7% -25.8%
20% -35.1% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,123) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$22 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized+$1,122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses34 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,511
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $465 $465 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,192 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,377 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7,006 −$8 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,483 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,535 −$7 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $964 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $230 +$3 +2%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,123 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,269 −$6 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,714 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,876 −$6 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,012 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,951 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,000 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $3,827 −$5 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $56 +$92 +165%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $950 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,706 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $974 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $184 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $537 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $630 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $251 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $372 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $3,172 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,852 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,465 −$5 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,424 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $405 −$1 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $419 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $7,842 −$9 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $465 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $241 3h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $241 6h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,191 21h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 23h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,107 26h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,109 28h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,134 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,136 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,222 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $962 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $964 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $851 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $852 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $920 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $921 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,066 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,067 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $901 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $902 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $230 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.15 · official $465.15 (match) · 608 history records