Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47bb…ff2f world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$31
other 26% −$11
sports 9% −$91
politics 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.8% -15.7% 10% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 10 -6.8% -15.7% 10% 0% -15.9%
≤90d 10 -6.8% -15.7% 10% 0% -15.9%
all 10 -6.8% -15.7% 10% 0% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 0% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 0% -24.0%
15% -31.1% 0% -31.3%
20% -37.9% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $169 −$91 -54%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $208 −$4 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $500 −$18 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $420 −$10 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $208 −$4 -2%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $75 −$2 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $208 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 12¢ $11 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 38¢ $40 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 36¢ $7 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 64¢ $20 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 64¢ $12 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 59¢ $21 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $7 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 37¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 68¢ $34 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 69¢ $29 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 93¢ $47 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $167 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $169 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $71 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $96 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $33 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $74 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $134 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $124 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $82 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $80 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $128 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $126 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $78 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $55 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records